The sad tale of Tarrin and the Democrats' defeat
January 19, 2001
Only two days before the January 6 general election, Prime Minister Chuan
Leekpai decided to dump his economic tsar Finance Minister Tarrin
Nimmanahaeminda. Out of the blue, he pushed Oxford graduate Abhisit Vejjajiva to
the forefront of the campaign. And he sent the message that Abhisit would head
the party's economic team and become finance minister if the Democrats won the
election.
Across the country, posters of Chuan and Abhisit, the experienced and the new
blood, were hastily erected as a twin image to win back trust from the voters.
It was too late.
The Democrats, as leaders of the sitting government, were doomed to lose
anyway. Three years after the Asian crisis, the public was fed up with pace of
the economic recovery. Poll after poll indicated that the Democrats would not
make a comeback. The last minute reshuffle added to the voters' impression that
the Democrats were caught in political infighting and that they had lost all
energy to form the next government.
Signs of trouble in the Democrat camp appeared late last year when Deputy
Prime Minister Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi and Deputy Finance Minister Dr Pisit
Lee-ahtam called it quits. Supachai wanted to leave politics to prepare himself
for the post of director-general of the World Trade Organisation, which he
assumes next year. Pisit, meanwhile, thought that politics was not to his taste,
having joined the Chuan government only because the country needed his help at
the time.
With the departure of these two key economic figures, the momentum of the
Democrats slid further. Meanwhile, Tarrin's political wheel of fortune changed
dramatically. He became to be viewed as a liability for the party rather than an
asset.
That was really sad. Tarrin, arguably Thailand's foremost finance manager,
turned into such a fat target for political attacks that he lost all local
stature. Internationally, Tarrin remained highly respected. The problem is that
foreigners do not vote.
Leaks cropped up that Tarrin would be removed from the top economic team.
Tarrin could not believe that the party would betray him. To deny Tarrin
amounted to a denial of the Democrats' entire economic reform programme of the
past three years. But in the end, he was destined to become the sacrificial
lamb.
In politics anything can happen. Inside the Democrat Party, there was an
absence of unity. After the departure of Sanan Khachornprasat as
secretary-general, the party had become weakened overall. The arrival of Anant
Anant-trakul as secretary-general only served as a contingency move to allay
concern over the party's leadership problems. Anyway, Chuan tightened his
leadership grip over the party in the process. His term is for three years,
ending in about two years time.
Suthep Thaugsuban, the transport and communications minister, is now trying
to wrest control of the party which, having truly become the party of the South,
has succeeded in alienating voters elsewhere. He and Banyat Bandadtan do not get
along. There is a possibility that Suthep will back Abhisit as the party's new
leader if Chuan were to step down.
Given this mess, how could the Democrats expect to be re-elected? They were
facing the formidable army of telecom billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, who had
prepared a very well-run campaign, backed by a huge cash machine. The Thai Rak
Thai Party had more unity and a better political platform. Its members all
backed the party leader.
Facing imminent defeat, Chuan, as the general going into the battle, should
have stepped down to save the party. Yet he did the unthinkable by ordering the
execution of his right-hand man, Tarrin, who had been loyal to the party. The
incident displayed Chuan's survival instinct, which comeS before anything else.
It is likely that when the new government takes power, it will continue to
use Tarrin as a political scapegoat, blaming him for causing more damage to the
Thai economy. Sadly and predictably, no Democrat will come to his defence.
The Democrats should do some soul searching and redefine their goals and
their place in Thai politics. For this reason, the party needs new leadership,
one that can unite it and draw up a better policy platform for the next
election.
To all intents and purposes, Chuan's days are over. Social critic Thirayudh
Boonmee's prediction that Chuan would never make a third comeback as prime
minister is right on target. If Chuan and the die-hard Democrats refuse to
accept this reality, they are doomed to lose the next election - or even go into
oblivion.
BY THANONG KHANTHONG
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