With interest rates still unbearably high, one of the prime minister's two most
highly-respected economic wizards is bound to be the prime target for complaint. Thanong
Khanthong and Achara Pongvuthitham discuss who it might be, and
why.
The worsening liquidity crisis has opened up old wounds in the Democrat Party, bringing
to the surface once again the differing opinions, if not long-standing rivalry, of its two
economic czars -- Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Supachai Panitchpakdi and
Finance Minister Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda -- on how to manage macroeconomic policies.
Aides close to Supachai admit the two rarely speak although they may smile wryly when
they encounter each other. Their differences over the course of salvaging the wrecked
economy, and managing liquidity in particular, have widened to a point where a compromise
will need the intervention of Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai.
Supachai's aides and others in his circle say he admits the broad financial and
economic reform pursued by Tarrin is moving in the right direction but that the finance
minister could have done a better job in trying to bring down interest rates, which are
going to threaten medium- and small-scale industries over the next two or three months.
As the nominal head of the Democrat's economic management team, Supachai was frustrated
that he could not maintain a hands-on policy in relieving the plight of Thai exporters,
who, because of the insolvency of the financial system, have been denied access to fresh
loans or working capital to ship their goods to overseas markets. Supachai's performance
lies in his ability to turn around the sluggish export situation. Thailand's terms of
trade have been improved largely because of the plunge in imports, not a surge in exports.
Supachai believes Tarrin has paid too much attention to creditors in his tackling of
the financial system crisis, without balancing the interests of the debtors or the
manufacturers, who earn Thailand's bread and butter, his people said.
Moreover, Tarrin's haste to resolve the baht crisis only benefits the large debt-ridden
corporates and banks, which are finding it cheaper to repay their US dollar-denominated
loans, while the strong baht is no good for exporters, they said.
''The export sector is suffering from the stronger baht. A lot of them have pegged
their costs at more than Bt40 to Bt45 against the dollar, and they are now losing money
because the dollars they've earned from exports are now worth only Bt38-Bt39,'' said one
of Supachai's advisers.
Tarrin's agenda is larger, encompassing the entire economic machinery of the country.
It is no secret that Tarrin has been disturbed by Supachai's frequent comments over the
liquidity crisis at a time when he is laying down the groundwork to rectify macroeconomic
imbalances and insolvency in both the financial and corporate sectors.
''If there is no money, how can interest rates come down,'' Tarrin was quoted as
saying. ''You just simply cannot talk down interest rates. Yes, you can bring the interest
rate down, but tomorrow it will go up again. This will make the government's policy look
stupid. If you bring down interest rates today, capital will immediately disappear from
the system.''
The Tarrin camp also complained that Supachai, who chairs several committees, has been
too busy to act on key issues -- in particular, Supachai's delay in revamping the Alien
Business Law to make it more attractive for foreign investors to pour their money into
Thailand, and privatisation.
Sitting in the middle is Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai, who has a sympathetic ear for
the economic czars and is facing a dilemma over how to deal with the two. Their joint
presence has bolstered the Democrat's popularity and image among both urban Thai voters
and the international community. Chuan's successful trip to the United States could be
attributed to Tarrin's masterminding, and Tarrin's ability to put the brakes on the
runaway baht was a truly remarkable achievement.
But reports indicate that Chuan lately has tilted toward Supachai after hearing a lot
of complaints from the private sector about high interest rates. More than a month ago,
the prime minister asked the finance minister to resolve the liquidity problem, yet so far
Tarrin has not delivered the policy in time to satisfy the prime minister and the
impatient business community.
On Monday, in the absence of Tarrin, Supachai led the charge in the Council of Economic
Ministers to vent his frustration against the Bank of Thailand's handling of the liquidity
crisis. He really would like to get a hold on the state-run banks and order them to
supplement the role of the weak commercial banks in lending money out to cash-strapped
businesses. But the state banks are under the jurisdiction of the finance minister.
Some other Cabinet ministers were also disappointed with Tarrin's failure to tackle the
liquidity problem as they see fit. Chuan also could not control his emotions after
listening to the same old story from the central bank. He ordered Dr Siri Garnjaroendee,
the bank's assistant governor, to return by next week with a comprehensive plan for
relieving the liquidity problem.
But PM's Office Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva played down any conflict, saying that
Monday's discussion was planned and it was Supachai's job to try to improve liquidity for
exporters.
In Beijing last week, Dhanin Chearvanont, the chief of the Charoen Pokphand Group,
warned that the honeymoon period between the Democrat-led government and the country will
end within a month or two if the government fails to resolve the liquidity crisis and
bring down interest rates. ''If they cannot resolve the liquidity problem, I will revise
my position on whether I should continue to support them,'' he said.
Tarrin, too, realises that the honeymoon period is over, but he needs at least until
the fourth quarter of this year before signs of a pickup in the economy can be detected.
Waiting that long might just be too much for an impatient country and a frustrated
Supachai. Some old wounds never heal.