SCB's global offering draws good response
May 3, 1999 -- JUMPING on the recovery bandwagon,
institutional investors from Asia, Europe and the United States have been scrambling to
subscribe to the Bt25-billion global offering launched by Siam Commercial Bank.
Fortunately for the bank, the issue is being placed in the hands of global investors at
a time when sentiment towards Asia in general and Thailand in particular is improving. Its
success reflects the ability of local corporations to re-access the global capital
markets, which have been shut to them over the past year. SCB is the first Thai company to
have made it to the big league of capital-raising.
Looking at the broader perspective, investors have bought into SCB because they are
betting that Thailand will show signs of recovery in the second half of this year after
two years of severe recession. Secondly, the main theme of the global equity is the
recovery story in Asia -- with the crisis continuing in Latin America, stagnation in
Europe and the risks of a US ''bubble'' -- fund managers are obliged to diversify their
portfolios by overweighting Asian equities.
Thailand is experiencing the windfall benefits from this shift in sentiment, although
there are still tough structural adjustments in both the financial and corporate sectors
to be accomplished.
SCB exemplifies the dramatic success story of a bank that has started to turn itself
around, although it will need Bt32 billion from the government to cap its Bt65 billion
recapitalisation. The deal has been structured to attract institutional investors, who
want to buy into a low-cost banking franchise with 458 branches. Investors who purchase a
unit of SCB's preferred stocks will be entitled to a unit of warrants, which will be sold
back to them over the next three years by the government so that they may benefit from
another upside gain. The warrant is estimated to carry a value of between Bt7.50 and Bt9.
With this feature, part of the Aug 14 Banking Restructuring Programme, SCB is an
attractive buy. Its stock price has already risen dramatically to close at almost Bt38.25
last week, although the global equity offer fetched Bt26 a share. Already investors are
willing to give SCB a hefty premium due to its strong capital base, which will enable it
to expand its loan portfolio several years down the road without having to worry about its
capital adequacy ratio. By May 10, it will be the first local bank to meet 100 per cent in
provisions for loan losses to the end-2000.
A year ago, SCB was in a pathetic state. After Thai Farmers Bank and Bangkok Bank
raised about US$1 billion each in March and April 1998, respectively, and cleared a tough
hurdle in their capital adequacy requirements, SCB appeared to be a sitting duck. There
was no room for a third bank to carry out a global offering. Investors then bet on a
recovery and they were wrong.
SCB's stock plummeted to below its Bt10 par value. The company's financial arm, Dhana
Siam Finance & Securities Plc, was nationalised, heightening concern about its
prospects of remaining solvent in the fierce financial storm that has engulfed Thailand
since the baht's devaluation in July 1997.
Then came a rescue by grand design, crafted by Finance Minister Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda,
a former president of SCB. The Bt300 billion banking reform package, introduced in August,
lifted sentiment and helped assure investors that there would be enough official money to
support the weak banks.
SCB immediately settled down to study how it could top the tier-1 capital support
offered via the package.
Doubts were initially raised about the efficacy of the rescue programme, which would
require an immediate capital write down and a change in management in return for
government money.
Bangkok Bank, Thai Farmers Bank, Bank of Ayudhya have all tried their best to avoid
tasting the government's apple for fears of government intervention. But SCB, controlled
by the Crown Property Bureau, has a more professionally structured management, making it
easier to apply for tier-1 capital support.
A change of management was imminent. Dr Olarn Chaipravat, who was disliked by foreign
fund managers, resigned from his presidency to pave the way for the rise of Jada
Wattanasirithan.
With some other management adjustments, the bank was ready to test the international
markets on the backdrop of the country's growing macroeconomic stability and low interest
rate environment. The timing was perfect last month when the Jada delegation headed out on
a roadshow that took it to Asia, Europe and the US. The issue was six times
oversubscribed, and the rest is history.
BY THANONG KHANTHONG
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