HONG KONG The annual World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting starts
today in Hong Kong with Thailand being singled out as a country that represents everything
that could have gone wrong.
It is a complete embarrassment for a country that as recently as 1992 won critical
acclaim from the IMF over its sound macro-economic management, efficient team of
technocrats, openness to global trade and financial markets, high level of private
investment, strong export base and healthy economic growth.
Now all the elements that contributed to Thailand's spectacular economic growth over
the past decade have fallen apart. With a currency and banking crisis and massive
indebtedness beyond the ability of the private sector to service, Thailand needs a bailout
from the IMF and its neighbouring countries.
Sadly, Thailand is broke. Even more tragic is the fact that most local politicians,
bureaucrats and farmers hardly realise the depth of the trouble the Thai economy is in.
''The politicians are acting as if nothing is happening to the economy. This is because
they never have had to make a living. While the country is on fire, they're still fighting
for toys," said a retired Cabinet member.
The bureaucrats, too, are complacent, with a narrow self-interest born of the
confidence that they will always receive government pay cheques at the end of the month.
Well, the cheques might not be forthcoming in the coming months.
The farmers are not sophisticated enough to understand the economic situation, yet they
will be sharing the pain that they had nothing to do with creating.
The bankers, financiers, property developers and industrialists are trying to get away
with indebtedness of 80 per cent of the US$90 billion that they have recklessly built, by
blaming the government for inaction. The lack of governance and the inability to make
tough decisions fiscal tightening and trimming the current account deficit, for
instance have allowed the financial malaise to develop into a full-blown crisis.
The financial crisis in Thailand has had a contagious effect, spreading turmoil
throughout the regional markets that will cause regional economic growth to slow down over
the years to come. The tiger economies have been domesticated, with most of the blame
hovering over Thailand. However, the IMF's recent endorsement of Thailand's painful
economic adjustments cannot be taken for granted. There is still the grave danger of the
country declaring a debt moratorium if its financial system continues to bleed.
Crucial will be the role of Thanong Bidaya, the finance minister, and Chaiyawat
Wibulswasdi, the Bank of Thailand governor. They will need to convince international
investors about Thailand's commitment to living within its means and its tough policy to
deal with the 58 ailing finance companies.
They will be trying to urge foreign creditors to roll over some of the US$30 billion in
short-term debts due this year.
The financial crisis in Thailand raises the big question as to what degree an economy
should liberalise its financial services sector. The free float of the baht in the
offshore market, the liberalisation of the banking sector through the BIBF, the rigid
foreign exchange policy, the creation of debt by the private sector without any control,
poor supervision of financial institutions and the lack of coordination among the
government agencies over the country's economic management have all contributed to the
present crisis.
As a developing economy, Thailand is ill-prepared for the globalisation of the finance
industry. Capital flows are double-edged. International bankers and investors act on a
herd instinct. They swamped Thailand with hot money in the good times, overheating the
economy. They are suddenly calling back their money in bad times, leading to a severe
liquidity crisis.
Thailand and other developing economies are merely the hostages of the foreign funds.
There has been little control or little understanding over capital flows.
Despite this fundamental flaw in the international financial system, there have been
calls, particularly from the United States and other developed economies which control
most of the savings in this world, for countries to liberalise further. The World Trade
Organisation is scheduled to conclude its financial services liberalisation talks before
the end of this year.
Thailand's banking crisis has automatically led to a liberalisation of the financial
industry. All the 58 ailing finance companies and the remaining 33 finance companies and
15 banks are up for grabs. It's give-away time.
Once these financial institutions have been acquired, through joint ventures, takeovers
or mergers, the Thai financial system will be saved, but at what price? Foreign owners
will be calling the shots in the Thai banking industry and their behaviour could be just
as unpredictable.
That is exactly the price Thailand, as well as other developing economies facing a
financial crisis, has to pay, before learning to live in the era of globalisation.