HONG KONG A mixture of entertainment in the Soros-Mahathir debate and seriousness
over the financial upheavals in Southeast Asia characterised this year's World Bank/IMF
meeting in Hong Kong.
Yet topping this economic policy-makers event was the emerging controversial issue of
how modern money games should be designed to fit into the new international financial
order.
Last Sunday, George Soros, dubbed ''The Man Who Broke the Bank of England" after
his successful onslaught against the pound sterling, took on Malaysian Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad by calling him ''a menace to his own country".
Mahathir earlier threatened to ban currency trading and blamed currency speculators for
creating turmoil in Malaysia and regional markets. He made it clear that Soros and other
''unscrupulous" currency speculators were at the centre of Southeast Asia's troubles.
Soros returned the charge by saying, ''He is using me as a scapegoat for his own
failings. He is playing to a domestic audience and he couldn't get away with it if he and
his ideas were subject to the discipline of independent media inside Malaysia."
Soros also went further to warn Mahathir that ''interfering with the convertibility of
capital at a time like this is a recipe for disaster". Soros, now dubbed by some as
''The man who broke the Bank of Thailand" after his US$3-billion gamble on the baht
devaluation, set the tone for the debate over how capital flows would be managed in the
future. Much to the country's shame, Thailand had been singled out as an example of a bad
system which failed miserably, if not irresponsibly, to handle capital flow that largely
went into real estate and other unviable investment projects. The lack of political
decisiveness, prudent policies, openness, transparency and accountability to address
macro-economic problems has given rise to a financial system crisis that has spread like
the plague into regional markets.
Reacting against the regional financial turmoil, the G-7 stressed the importance of
avoiding excessive depreciation of currencies where this could lead to the re-emergence of
large external imbalances. It also welcomed the IMF's and international assistance efforts
to stabilise the Thai economy and expected Thailand to vigorously implement the IMF
programme, as a condition of the country's US$17.2-billion rescue package.
The G-24 also praised the timely response of the IMF to the currency crisis in Thailand
through its emergency financing mechanism.
In spite of Thailand's systemic failures, there was an uneasy feeling among Southeast
and East Asian countries that the money game had gone too far. Although they were
privately unhappy with Thailand's mishandling of its macro-economic problems, the
Southeast and East Asian countries were appalled by the threat of the modern money game,
ruthlessly practised by the unregulated international hedging funds or banks from the West
in the borderless world.
Soros might conveniently argue in favour of the virtue of his and other international
hedge funds, which are ready to shower rewards on a sound economic system but do not
hesitate to punish an unsound one. Yet Asian market players have had little leverage in
this money game.
Around the corridors of the World Bank/IMF meeting, there were discussions about the
possibility of Asia creating a regional crisis fund, with a gigantic reserve of US$100
billion. It signalled the start of confrontation between the West and the East a
symptom of the lack of trust in the present structure of the international financial
markets.
The regional fund would be a defensive mechanism, designed to help the member countries
fend off future speculative currency attacks. The notion took shape at the Bangkok meeting
of the United States and the IMF. The US suspected that the regional fund could evolve
into a body that would leave it out in the cold and certainly outside the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation framework. There were reports of Japan trying to woo China and South
Korea into this scheme, apart from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).
The IMF, which looks after the stability of the international financial and foreign
exchange system, was also afraid that such a regional fund would undercut its position as
the supreme global governing body, although publicly it said that it has never hesitated
to promote any regional monetary cooperation.
Japan clearly played the leading role in pushing for the proposal, sensing its stake
and well-being depended on the prosperity and stability in this region. If Thailand is to
collapse, it will bring down the entire region, dragging Japan's gigantic investment stake
in its wake.
At Sunday's meeting of G-7 finance ministers, Japan tried to push for acceptance of the
regional support fund. Thai Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya joined the pack of Southeast
Asian finance ministers to reaffirm his support for the regional fund. He said the concept
was complementary to the IMF in that it could rehabilitate the health of the region's
financial sector. On Tuesday, Robert Rubin, the US Treasary secretary, and Alan Greenspan,
the US Federal Reserve Board chairman, met Asean finance ministers to discuss the proposed
regional fund. They parted on an open-ended note, saying only that future discussions
would be useful.
Theo Waigel, the German Finance minister, warned that a regional fund would be a
mistake as it could make the crisis larger rather than smaller.
Philippine Finance Secretary Roberto de Ocompo tried to play down the G-7 concern over
the regional fund, saying, ''We have not arrived at any amount, nor were we talking about
an institution to rival the IMF. So, to that extent I think there has been a little bit of
misunderstanding in the G-7's reaction to this so-called proposal."
Upon his return to Tokyo, Hiroshi Mitsuzuka revealed that a planned Asian monetary fund
would be supplementary to the IMF and other international institutions and not a
competitor. He said Asian countries intended to stabilise their financial markets
''voluntarily" and that the Japanese government was ready to explain their position
to the US and Europe.
If the regional fund is intended to be supplementary to the IMF, it clearly suggests
that the IMF's role at present is inadequate in the eyes of Asia. Stanley Fischer, the
deputy managing director of the IMF, sought to shoot down the Asian regional fund concept,
expressing his concern that it might undercut the IMF's influence.
He warned it would be a mistake if the regional fund was to be set up without strict
conditions attached over assets for bail-out loans. ''We would be concerned about the
establishment of an international body that would undercut the IMF's conditionality,"
Fischer said. ''Surveillance among the Asian members through peer pressure would be
sufficient to prevent future crises."
He noted it might not be in the tradition of the Asian countries to warn each other
when a member is pursuing unsound macro-economic policy. The IMF's regional office in
Tokyo would try to augment its role in this area, he added.
The US$17.2-billion bail-out fund for Thailand, brokered by the IMF, has been given on
the condition that Thailand pursues a painful adjustment programme to bring its
macro-economic problems under control. Last Monday, the South China Morning Post,
citing a well-informed source, reported that IMF officials were dismayed about the
dilatory and weak manner in which Thai officials have dealt with the country's economic
crisis.
The realisation may not have sunk in that the IMF really does play hardball and will
walk out if the Thai authorities fail to adhere to the programme, the paper added.
In Bangkok during a bilateral Thailand-Japan meeting, Thanong did assure Mitsuzuka that
he would implement the IMF-backed economic restructuring programme in good faith, despite
the pain, and that on Oct 15 a comprehensive financial restructuring package would be
completed and should improve confidence. He and Chaiyawat Wibulswasdi, the Bank of
Thailand governor, headed to Hong Kong after winning Cabinet approval for drastic budget
cuts aimed at keeping the budget in surplus, equivalent to one per cent of the gross
domestic product. Any further revenue shortfall would be matched by deepening cuts and a
tax increase. This tough decision led Michel Camdessus, the IMF's managing director, to
have more kind words for Thailand. On Sept 18, he tried to allay the concern that Thailand
might flunk the IMF iron test by saying that he was satisfied with macro-economic reforms,
although the country might face a potentially serious financial sector weakness.
Thanong and Chaiyawat put on an impressive show to win back confidence by promising to
stick tightly to the IMF programme and tackle the ailing financial system decisively. The
financial restructuring package would be drafted by a team of World Bank and IMF officials
to eliminate any slight doubts about the legal or regulatory conditions surrounding the
rehabilitation of the Thai financial institutions.
Talks about the money game shifted from the financial crisis in the region and the IMF
package for Thailand to liberalisation of the capital account, which covers capital flows.
Thailand has liberalised its current account, which covers trade and services, in
accordance with Article 8 of the IMF, and had been maintaining a relatively free capital
account which led to the creation of the bubble economy.
Sensing that countries might backtrack from further liberalising their financial
markets through capital control, the US has been leading a drive to call for free capital
flows. Rubin staunchly defended the free flow of international capital, even in the face
of recent financial unrest in Southeast Asia.
He told the IMF Interim Committee that the turbulence in Southeast Asia should not
cause a reversal of the trend to closer financial market integration.
He also called for increased transparency and enhanced surveillance of markets, notably
through the exchange of information and data and the strengthening of the IMF's role.
What Rubin did not say was that US banks and financial institutions, owing to their
technical experience and resources, would stand to gain most from global financial
services liberalisation. The US has pushed hard for a global pact on financial services
liberalisation in the World Trade Organisation and for capital account liberalisation in
the IMF.
In April, the interim committee of the IMF agreed to add a new chapter to the Bretton
Woods agreement by moving to amend its articles to give it jurisdiction over capital
account liberalisation among more than 150 member countries. About 140 have agreed to
Article 8 of the IMF, to adhere to current account liberalisation. The IMF economists see
a ''logical step" towards capital account liberalisation after countries adopt
current account liberalisation. The statement of the interim committee makes clear the
importance it sees in the liberalisation of capital movements if the world is to
strengthen the globalisation process.
''Private capital flows have become much more important to the international monetary
system and an increasingly open and liberal system has proved to be highly beneficial to
the world economy. By facilitating the flow of savings to their most productive uses,
capital movements increase investment, growth and prosperity," it said.
In his address, Thanong, however, expressed Thailand's cautiousness over unrestricted
flows of capital. Thailand is still slightly dizzy with the hangover from the capital
flow. Thanong said any capital flow liberalisation must be ''cautious" and
''gradual".
Anwar Ibrahim, the Malaysian finance minister, also noted that measures or mechanisms
must be worked out to protect countries from disruption when they liberalise their
financial sectors.
He made his point, but unfortunately Malaysia has been too controversial to be taken
seriously.
Fischer would argue forcefully the role of the IMF and capital account liberalisation.
Three benefits would stand out:
First, the benefits of liberalising the capital account outweigh the potential costs.
Second, countries need to prepare well for capital account liberalisation because
economic policies and institutions, particularly the financial system, need to be adapted
to operate in a world of liberalised capital markets.
Third, an amendment to the IMF's articles of agreement is the best way of ensuring that
capital account liberalisation is carried out in an orderly, non-disruptive way that
minimises the risks premature liberalisation could pose for an economy and its policy
makers.