HONG KONG The deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said
if there had been peer pressure against Thailand last year to rectify its macro-economic
imbalances, the region would not have faced the crisis it is now painfully experiencing.
Stanley Fischer said that, unlike in Europe, it is not a tradition for countries in
this region to warn each other over macro-economic problems, even though they stand a risk
of being affected by a policy error of another country.
The IMF, he said, supports a vigilant watch for signs of macro-economic instability to
prevent future financial crises rather than an outright attempt to establish a regional
bail-out fund, which, if mishandled, might do more harm than good.
US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin appeared to have softened his stand yesterday during
his discussion with Association of Southeast Nation (Asean) counterparts over the
possibility of setting up a regional crisis fund, an idea the United States has opposed
from the outset.
The fund, which would come to the rescue of countries facing a currency attack, has
been gaining support from Japan, Asean and other East Asian countries, but might leave the
United States in the cold. The United States suspects that the Malaysia-driven East Asian
Economic Caucus a rival to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation is in the making.
Fischer warned against the possibility of creating a moral hazard if the rescue fund is
misused without strict conditions. ''On the financing side of this regional fund, we need
to be cautious. Access to loans with no conditionalities will be just a mistake," he
said.
Thailand is obliged to undergo painful economic adjustments to rectify its large
external deficit in return for the IMF-brokered international bail-out fund worth about
US$17.2 billion. Fischer is afraid that countries facing an economic crisis might simply
ask for more rescue loans without making adequate structural adjustments.
He said the IMF, which has set up a regional office in Tokyo, will be augmenting its
surveillance activities, which will help improve its macro-economic policy planning
ability and assist it in coordinating policies of countries in the region.
Through surveillance as opposed to a bail-out fund, developing frameworks of policy
will take centre stage. Fischer added that the IMF would be concerned if there was an
attempt to create an international financial organisation, which might undercut the IMF's
present functions.
He said that the IMF detected signs of trouble with Thailand's external deficit and
foreign exchange last year and warned Thai authorities to take appropriate measures. If
action had been taken sooner, it would have cost a lot less in terms of reserves and the
situation would have been less difficult to solve, he added.
On the Thai financial crisis, Fischer said the markets overreacted, although
understandably, in the first few months after the crisis broke out, which resulted in a
sharp depreciation of the baht.
He and other IMF officials would not comment on what they thought an appropriate level
for the baht would be, but said the situation will improve once the markets understand
Thailand's economic adjustment measures and its determination to tackle the ailing
financial institutions in a comprehensive fashion.
Drawing from the Thai experience, Michel Camdessus, the managing director of the IMF,
called for member countries to be aware of the importance of exercising good citizenship
when tapping foreign money, instead of the risks of globalisation.
''Indeed, countries cannot compete for the blessings of the global capital markets and
refuse their disciplines," Camdessus said. ''Hence, there is the importance of
pursuing sound policies that give markets confidence, of respecting the signals they
provide and of maintaining transparent and market-friendly policies so that they can do
their job."
He said countries need to avoid macro-economic imbalances and must correct them when
they arise. He added that countries also need to get their policy priorities right.
''Here in Asia, it means that countries must give priority to the pressing business of
strengthening current account positions and ensuring financial sector soundness, rather
than spurring growth prematurely," he said.