Measures to reform financial system downgraded by political interference,
vested-interest lobbying
Measures to restructure the financial system look
like a miscellaneous package rather than one that is comprehensive, say Vatchara
Charoonsantikul and Thanong Khanthong
The Chavalit government has once again exhibited its apparently-infinite ability to
disappoint financial markets through its watering down of the ''comprehensive"
financial restructure package and its buy-time strategy so that failed finance companies
can try to preserve their narrow interests.
Instead of quickly resolving the problem of the 58 suspended finance companies, so that
it can concentrate on the more crucial task of saving the remaining 33 companies and the
15 commercial banks, the government ends up with a disappointingly-miscellaneous package,
marred by political interference and vested-interest lobbying.
Embarrassingly, the government will not be able to keep its promise to deliver a
comprehensive financial restructure package. As it turns out, the Cabinet today will only
deliberate the broad regulatory framework within which the financial system problems are
to be resolved.
Whether due to bureaucratic delay or political meddling, the five Royal decrees to
accompany the financial restructure package cannot be finished in time. Not until Friday
will the Cabinet hold a special meeting to deliberate the Royal decrees, which will cover
the creation of a Financial Restructure Agency, Deposit Insurance Corporation and Asset
Management Corporation; and amendments to the Bank of Thailand Act, the Commercial Banking
Act and the Finance Company and Credit Foncier Act. Since mere words will not win back
public confidence in the financial system, the government has to resort to legalising its
deeds.
So instead of having a comprehensive package on hand today for a big-time PR blitz, the
government will be announcing piecemeal measures that will further confuse rather than
enlighten the public as to when to expect all the uncertainty in the financial system to
be brought to an end.
After once lobbying the prime minister and twice calling on Chat Pattana Party leader
Chatichai Choonahavan to try to win sympathy for their plight, representatives of the 58
finance companies have succeeded in buying time, in hopes of salvaging at least some of
their wreckage.
The guidelines to re-open the finance companies to business may look tough,
particularly the capital adequacy ratio of 15 per cent in the first year of
rehabilitation, 12 per cent in the second year and 10 per cent in the third year, but the
government will not be too mean. The Financial Institutions Development Fund, which has
altogether lent out Bt430 billion to them to cushion a run on their deposits, has been
ordered to bail out the failed finance companies by converting its loans to them into
equity. The ratio is not more than 33 per cent of the total amount of the capital increase
for a finance company or overall 25 per cent of the paid-up capital.
Provisions on loan-loss reserves of the rehabilitated finance companies are tax
deductible. Moreover, the failed finance companies which have submitted rehabilitation
plans may extend the repayment period to the Financial Institutions Development Fund for
eight years at an interest charge quoted by the fund.
The 16 finance companies ordered to shut down their lending business in the first round
now have another chance to breathe. They will be allowed to resubmit their rehabilitation
plans ''as quickly as possible", disregarding the Oct 10 deadline.
It is no wonder that Amaret Sila-on, chairman of the panel looking after the financial
institution mergers, resigned from his post on Saturday and described the government's
handling of the financial institution problem as a ''political football".
''If this is everything, I think the [equity] market will be fairly disappointed ...
there is no forced restructuring of the sector. We have tried this before it doesn't
work," Gerard Kruithof of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell was quoted as saying.
The measures on the revitalisation of the remaining 33 finance companies and 15 banks
are not as tough as earlier indicated, although several research reports have indicated
that the financial system as a whole will require somewhere between Bt200 billion to Bt400
billion in fresh money for recapitalisation.
Beginning Jan 1, 1998, the financial institutions will have to stop accruing interest
incomes for any loans that have missed payments for six consecutive months, instead of the
present 12-month guideline. Any non-performing loans of more than six months, with
collateral, have to be classified as substandard debts and will need a provision of
loan-loss reserves of 15 per cent of the total not 20 or 25 per cent as earlier
indicated.
Doubtful debts or bad debts will need full provisions of 100 per cent. The capital
adequacy ratio will be kept unchanged at 8.5 per cent for banks and 7.5 per cent for
finance companies.
The problem is that the government will not come out to admit how large an amount the
non-performing loans in the financial system is or when it expects the bad debts will
peak. Without a clear picture of this, accompanied by a sweeping recapitalisation plan for
the financial institutions, it will be tough going to win back confidence from the public
and international investors.
Administering the financial restructure package demands a government of high
credibility, yet the political horse-trading that is taking place between the Chat Pattana
and New Aspiration parties demonstrates even more confusion at the top policy-making
levels, where it is unclear who is really in charge of economic matters.
Dr Virabongsa Ramangkura, the deputy prime minister, will be limited in his role to
looking after Thailand's compliance with the International Monetary Fund-prescribed
economic austerity programme, while Korn Dabaransi, the deputy prime minister and industry
minister, will take over the power of managing the country's economy.
If all this confusion continues and the public does not have trust in the package,
another round of deposit runs will spell disaster. By that time there will not be anything
left in the country for the politicians to manage.
|