SUPACHAI Panitchpakdi, deputy prime minister and commerce minister, Friday reaffirmed
Thailand's commitment to adhere to the International Monetary Fund-prescribed tight
monetary policy by keeping the repurchase rate at a high 15-20 per cent to defend the Thai
currency.
Speaking at the Pacific Rim Allied Economic Organisations third conference, Supachai
appeared to have backed down from his earlier comment that interest rates would have to be
brought down to revive the economy. This comment sent out conflicting signals between him
and Finance Minister Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda, who insisted the money market needed to be
tightened to encourage investors to hold the high-yield Thai baht vis-a-vis the US dollar.
Supachai made it clear Friday that there would not be any political intervention in the
way monetary policy is managed. The overnight rate, which he said jokingly had become an
''overmonth rate'', shot up to 25 per cent before weakening to 22 per cent over the past
few days with the full market forces at work. ''We'll strictly adhere to the IMF
programme,'' he said.
The IMF has been criticised for prescribing too harsh a remedy for Thailand with
severely tight monetary policy, which it believes is necessary to keep the Thai currency
stable. Some analysts also blamed the banking regulators for overdosing on the IMF
medicine, which resulted in prohibitively high interest rates that are killing the Thai
economy.
However, Thailand at this juncture has no choice but to bite the bullet and muddle
through the IMF programme, which guarantees its balance of payments. Stabilising the baht
remains the most urgent policy objective to prevent the economy from collapsing further.
Supachai told his audience some positive signs are emerging in Thailand's current
account, which is expected to become a surplus this year. A current account surplus means
Thailand will not suffer a bleeding of capital from the trade and service side, but there
will still be an outflow from the financial account.
Analysts said the pressure on the Thai currency remains clear and present, given the
fact that the private sector this year will have to repay more than US$40 billion in
foreign debts and the Bank of Thailand will also have to settle more than $10 billion in
its forward currency contracts. ''The pressure of foreign debt repayment will continue to
create hardship for the economy since export earnings amount to only one-fifth of the
foreign debts,'' said an analyst from a financial institution.
Supachai added that the regional financial turmoil cannot be brushed aside as merely an
''Asian flu'' since the contagion effect is spreading out to threaten global economic
well-being. For the first time in recent memory, growth in Asia will lag behind the rest
of the world. Its impact will be enormous because Asia accounts for about 50 per cent of
the world's trade, he said.
Supachai said US economic growth is expected to slow sharply this year to 2.50 or 2.00
per cent against 4 per cent in 1997, with such sectors as energy, infrastructure, defence,
aircraft and tourism taking big hits as Asia scales back its investment and spendings.
However, he said Europe will be hit harder than the US because of its larger exposure to
the region.
BY THANONG KHANTHONG